Lorenc Ligori: Overestimation of election campaigns / Mbivlerësimi i fushatave zgjedhore [EN]

Universiteti i Tiranës
Fakulteti i Shkencave Sociale
Departamenti Sociologji
Dr. në proces Lorenc Ligori
lorencit@gmail.com


Abstrakt

 

A kanë rëndësinë e predikuar fushatat elektorale në lidhje me zgjedhjen që bëjnë votuesit dhe si rrjedhim a ndikojnë e sa ndikojnë në rezultatin përfundimtar?

Krahas të tjerash, qëllimi kryesor i politikaneve në një fushate zgjedhore është bindja e votuesve, e në mënyrë të veçantë e atyre që konsiderohen si të pavendosur.

Studiues të ndryshëm bashkohen përsa i takon qëllimeve kryesore të realizimit të fushatave zgjedhore. Por ka mendime të ndryshme në lidhje me rolin dhe faktorët që ndikojnë në rëndësinë e tyre.

Një ndodhi tjetër ka ndikuar në këtë ndasi. Në vende të ndryshme, të dhënat e sondazheve, të kompanive profesionale e serioze, para fillimit të fushatës janë shumë të përafërta me rezultatin e votimit. Duket sikur parashikimet e sondazheve dhe pritshmëritë në përgjithësi po realizohen gjithnjë e më shumë.

Në këtë shkrim analizohen jo vetëm qëllimet e një fushate elektorale por edhe rrethanat apo faktorët që ndikojnë në një mënyrë apo në një tjetër në efektin e rëndësinë e tyre. Këto e çështje të tjera, të trajtuara edhe në kontekstin shqiptar të fushatave të fundit zgjedhore janë në fokus të këtij shkrimi.

 

Fjalë kyce: Fushata, komunikim, sondazhe, rrethana, rezultat, etj.

 

Abstract


Do the election campaigns have the predicted importance when it comes to voters’ choices and, consequently, do they have an impact and how much do they affect the final result?

Among other things, the main goal of politicians in an election campaign is to persuade voters, especially those who are considered undecided.

Various scholars share common ideas in terms of the main goals of conducting election campaigns. But they have different opinions about the role and the factors that influence their importance.

Another occurrence appears to have an effect in this division. In different countries, the survey data published by professional and serious companies, before the start of the campaign, are very close to the actual voting result. It seems that poll predictions and general expectations are increasingly being met.

This article analyzes not only the goals of an election campaign but also the circumstances or factors that in one way or another influence the importance and impact of campaigns. These and other issues, addressed in the Albanian context of recent election campaigns, are in the focus of this article.

 

Keywords: electoral campaign, political communication, surveys, results etc. 

1. Evolution of election campaigns 

In an election campaign, the traditional and the new media focus mainly on the race of electoral subjects and political candidates. Voters have the opportunity to watch and enjoy this race from the front row. But this is a different type of race. At any time, it invites voters to leave the comfort of being simply spectators and become part of it. A part responds to the invitation and is active through technology that enables this participation, while some others do not idle around but they turn to the halls and squares, as before …

Campaign goals are almost the same, such as: unfolding of political alternatives, reaching voters, mobilization of militants and sympathizers, persuading undecided voters, and why not the courageous objective to change the minds of voters who previously did not support them. Running candidates, seek to win over minds and hearts. Through their programs they appeal to voter’s reason, while through a number of various electoral techniques they appeal to voter’s feelings and emotions.

Also, as before, strategies are drafted, which are conditioned by the political-socio-economic context of a country, by the cultural political tradition in the country, by financial resources, by the qualities and skills of party leaders and political candidates, etc...

But there are also changes such as: the use of new technologies, the presence and role of new social media, the increasingly important role of hired communication professionals, etc...

Electoral campaigns have evolved. The elements of political communication have remained the same: political actors, media, and audience. But technological, social, economic developments have changed the form and method of its implementation. Based on the changes observed in the election campaigns and understanding them as a process of modernization that has affected the political parties, the media, and the electorate, the well-known researcher Pippa Norris classifies them into three groups: pre-modern, modern and post-modern. It is of interest to bring to attention some of the characteristics of each stage according to Norris.

a. Pre-modern campaigns, inter alia, were characterized by:


- forms of interpersonal communication between candidates and citizens at the local level, with a short-term and concrete planning by the party leadership.
- the party press or the press close to the ideology of a party played an intermediary role with the public.
- the presence of a divided electorate, characterized by a partisan allegiance.

Norris refers to a campaign developed strongly on a local and interpersonal level, and from the citizen's point of view we find an active individual in the community where he resides.

b. Modern campaigns

Here Norris sees evolution in all three elements: parties, media, citizens.

- there is an increase in coordination from the party leadership center, as well as advice from hired professionals.
- national television is the main form of communication.
- a secession of citizens from the parties is ascertained. The electorate is more interested in policies and performance.

Politicians and professionals attach importance to media dominance. Meanwhile there is a departure from interpersonal communication. The voter becomes more passive, he plays more the role of the spectator of the debate and the media campaign.

c. Post-modern campaigns

-  Hired communication professionals become equal actors with politicians, taking a major role in the conception, long-term and daily organization of the campaign.
- “The news media fragments into a more complex and incoherent environment of multiple channels, outlets, and levels” (Norris, p.3)
- There are two important moments concerning voters:
- more independent from political subjects
- through social media some of the voters’ “return” to the activist role.

2. Audience 

Methods and tools used by politicians to reach the audience are truly diverse. In addition to party activities (rallies, meetings with interest groups, door-to-door campaigns) that allow for direct communication and are also able to generate media coverage, the innovation in political communication in recent election campaigns in Albania has been meetings with small groups of citizens, use of networks and social media as well as advertising and media spots.

After the 1990s election campaigns in Albania were dominated by large rallies that were seen not only as an indicator of support for a political entity or coalition in one area, but also as means of advertisement for other areas. While this practice continues to date, it can also be noted that big rallies are intertwined with the format of meetings in small groups of citizens. Given that the media attention and coverage of the big political parties is guaranteed by the electoral law, this meeting format goes with today’s campaign style in Albania:

a) personalization of election campaign by party leaders,

b) exchange of back-and-forth quips, choice of jabs over programs,

c) the use of concrete local details for making generalizations and highlighting political contrasts, and

d) conveying well-thought-out political messages through the media.

Traditional media such as print, radio and television continue to be important means of communication. In particular the Television, which in the evening shows an increase in the audience of political shows during the election campaign.

Innovations in the use of social media in an election campaign in Albania consist of:

a) a greater attention placed by politicians to this form of communication.

b) a more intensive use of them

Using Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, etc. is one of the conditions for success. Although there are not enough comparative studies in this regard, it can be said that the socialist Prime Minister Rama has been very active in the use of social networks, especially Twitter and Facebook. In the last two general election campaigns (2017 & 2021), he attracted a lot of attention from social media users. His statuses were also less rigid in terms of style and method of communicating with voters. While other party leaders used those mediums mainly for announcements and coverage of their electoral activities. Although the last campaign did not lack online conversations with followers of social networks, this style of communication still works in most cases in one direction. As the well-known professor of communication Artan Fuga says: “Social networks in the hands of politicians ... cannot implement their first purpose: interactivity. It is impossible for hundreds of thousands of citizens or millions of them to engage in daily dialogue with politicians. In this way communication is centralized and what is called the spirit of democracy is lost ”(Fuga, A. 2017: 325).

We can say that during an election campaign in Albania, politicians use the traditional and the new forms of communication to reach their audience and have intensified interactions with voters through all of them. 

Fragment. More in Revista Haemus Nr. 62-65 / 2021/’22